Apollo dropped 9% amid rising interest rates and private credit concerns, with analysts projecting the S&P 500 could correct to 3,500 by 2028. The decline reflects broader pressures facing private equity firms globally as higher refinancing costs threaten portfolio company valuations and credit market volatility increases.
Performance across the sector is bifurcating sharply. Canadian firms Onex and Fairfax India both reported strong results, with Onex completing its acquisition of Convex and forming a partnership with AIG. CEO Bobby Le Blanc called it "a pivotal moment in Onex' evolution that meaningfully enhances our growth prospects," citing "significant momentum heading into the new year."
In Europe, Paris-based Audacia completed an €8 million capital increase with 100% subscription at €4.05 per share, receiving demand for 1,975,308 new shares. The firm has invested over €1 billion in more than 400 companies since inception, demonstrating continued investor appetite for established European private equity players.
Oak-Eagle AcquireCo announced its merger will proceed independently of its tender offers and consent solicitations, removing a key condition that could have delayed the transaction. The structure allows completion regardless of bondholder participation in the concurrent debt restructuring.
The divergence highlights differing exposure to interest rate sensitivity and portfolio quality. Firms with lower leverage and stronger portfolio companies are executing growth strategies across North America and Europe, while those with higher debt exposure face mounting pressure from rising rates. Private credit fears are driving volatility, as concerns grow that refinancing costs could trigger distress among portfolio companies.
A projected S&P correction would create both challenges and opportunities for global private equity firms with capital to deploy at lower valuations. Firms positioned with dry powder and strong balance sheets could capitalize on distressed opportunities, while highly leveraged players may face forced portfolio sales or restructurings in the coming years.