On November 5, 2026, semiconductor stocks had their worst single session since March 2020, and the Nasdaq entered a correction.1 The sell-off followed the Democratic sweep of Congress and a rotation out of technology shares, and it unwound the trade built around artificial intelligence and data centres.1 A sell-off that size invites the conclusion that the businesses themselves broke. The company figures we could verify do not show that. They show the reverse in several places, and they also show where the risks sit.
What happened to the market
The damage was concentrated in a short window. On Friday, November 6, the Nasdaq gained 1.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1% and the Dow added 0.1%, after the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October.1 US indices were higher again by midday on Monday, November 9.1 The same day, a team of strategists led by Beata Manthey cut US stocks and the global technology sector to neutral and raised European stocks outside the UK to overweight.1
Two things follow. A partial rebound began within a day. And professional caution did not disappear: a neutral stance is a decision not to bet on a recovery. The dossier does not tell us how far shares fell on November 5, so we do not give a percentage.
Micron: spending four times as much, with far more cash
Micron Technology is the clearest test of whether the AI build-out is still funded. Its capital expenditure, meaning money spent on factories and equipment, has climbed every year in SEC filings: $7.676 billion in fiscal 2023, $8.386 billion in 2024, $15.857 billion in 2025 and $30.712 billion in 2026.2 By our arithmetic, that is about four times the fiscal 2023 level in three years.
Cash rose even faster. Micron held $8.577 billion at the end of fiscal 2023 and $38.364 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, roughly 4.5 times as much.2 The quarterly filings show the step change: $13.908 billion in the second quarter of 2026 and $24.995 billion in the third.2 A company that doubled its spending and still piled up cash is not one starved of customers.
Costs are rising more slowly than spending. Cost of revenue, the direct cost of making what it sells, was $22.505 billion in fiscal 2025 and $25.684 billion in fiscal 2026, an increase of about 14% by our arithmetic.2 The filings we hold do not include revenue, so we cannot calculate profit margins and will not guess at them.
Do you already own Micron? Possibly. The dossier records that the Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio holds it, and that Goldman Sachs covers it.3 It does not give the stock's weight in any fund or index, so we cannot say how much of a typical index fund it makes up. Micron supplies Amazon Web Services and Meta Platforms, and it develops high-bandwidth memory, the fast memory used in AI chips.3
On possible share buybacks, Micron's own restrictions under the CHIPS Act mean it could technically restart them from December 9. Analysts are not necessarily expecting an announcement that day.4
Infineon: record revenue, less disclosure
Infineon, the German power-chip maker, reported on November 11 a record quarterly revenue of EUR 4.706 billion, up 13% on the previous quarter.5 Its segment result was EUR 1.119 billion, a 23.8% margin, and its adjusted gross margin was 45.1%.5 Revenue from AI-related products for fiscal 2026 was EUR 1.7 billion, and free cash flow in the fourth quarter was EUR 657 million.5
For fiscal 2027 it guides to revenue of about EUR 20 billion, a segment margin in the mid-20s (percent), data-centre revenue close to EUR 4 billion and silicon carbide revenue well above EUR 1 billion.5 For the first quarter it expects about EUR 4.6 billion in revenue, which is slightly below the record just reported.5
The most important detail for careful readers is a change in disclosure. Infineon will now give only qualitative colour on its order backlog and stop publishing specific numbers. The previous quarter's figure was close to EUR 30 billion.5 By our arithmetic, that is about one and a half times the revenue it now guides for all of fiscal 2027. We do not know why the company made the change, and the dossier does not say. But in a nervous market, investors lose a number they could previously check.
Siltronic: a record, but not yet a profit
Siltronic, the German maker of the silicon wafers that chips are cut from, is a more mixed story. In the third quarter its sales rose 10.5% from the previous quarter to EUR 355 million, with record 300mm wafer shipments.6 EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings before certain costs, rose from EUR 69 million to EUR 81 million, lifting the margin from 21.6% to 22.9%.6
But the company still lost money. EBIT, the operating result after depreciation, improved by EUR 10 million to negative EUR 42 million, and the net loss narrowed from EUR 63 million to EUR 55 million.6 Siltronic guides for 2026 EBIT "significantly below the previous year," unchanged from before, and net cash flow around the previous year's level.6 It trimmed its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to EUR 180-200 million from EUR 180-220 million, and its depreciation guidance to EUR 480-500 million from EUR 490-520 million.6 Its new Singapore plant is ramping well and, in the third quarter, no longer dragged down the group's EBITDA margin.6
The picture is a supplier recovering from a weak base, not one riding a boom. The sell-off hit shares of companies in very different shape, and the dossier suggests that lumping them together hides real differences.
What the analysts said, and when
Lynx Equity Strategies rates Micron "a clear buy with anticipated upside of 33%" and Sandisk "a clear buy with anticipated upside of 49%."7 Read this with care. The article carrying those ratings is a Motley Fool piece whose own header is dated September 4, two months before the rout, so the ratings may not reflect the new conditions.7 Our measurements show only 31% of the 58 claims we checked from that outlet held up, a small sample, which is a reason for caution.7 The Siltronic source, GuruFocus via NewsEOD, scored better, with 54% of 6,663 checked claims holding up, but that is still only a little over half.6
What to watch
- December 9: whether Micron says anything about buybacks once it is allowed to restart them.4
- Infineon's qualitative backlog commentary: whether it gives enough substance to replace the number it stopped publishing.5
- Siltronic's path to profit: EBIT is still negative and guided well below last year, so the next quarter matters more than the record shipments.6
- Whether the strategist caution spreads: the move to neutral on US tech was one team's call, and the rebound has only just begun.1
Bottom line: the evidence we can verify says the November 5 sell-off was a reaction to politics and positioning, not to broken company results. That could change quickly if cash-rich companies like Micron slow their spending, and the evidence we hold on demand and profit is thin.
