Why this matters now
On September 30, 2026, Cboe Global Markets announced at Robinhood's third annual HOOD Summit in Houston that it plans to launch a new category of binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators. A binary contract pays out one fixed amount if a stated outcome happens and nothing if it does not. Launch is expected in October 2026, subject to regulatory approval. Robinhood will be the first retail broker to offer them.1 The announcement covers products tied to 23 companies.1
Ordinary investors should care because this moves a kind of bet that was once mostly the preserve of professionals onto the same phone app many people use to buy index funds. It also comes from a company whose financial results, which we have checked against SEC filings, have changed sharply in a short time. The rest of this piece sets out what is verified, what is only announced, and what we cannot yet say.
The verified backbone: a company that turned profitable
Robinhood Markets, Inc. reported revenue of $1.865 billion for fiscal 2023, $2.951 billion for fiscal 2024 and $4.473 billion for fiscal 2025.2 That is roughly 2.4 times the 2023 figure in two years (our arithmetic on the checked numbers). For scale, the 2025 total is more than the 2023 and 2024 totals would suggest by a simple straight-line extension. The figures themselves are what matter, and each is verified against the SEC filing.
Profit moved even more. Robinhood posted a net loss of $541 million in fiscal 2023, then net income of $1.411 billion in fiscal 2024 and $1.883 billion in fiscal 2025.3 Earnings per share, which is profit divided by the number of shares and so the figure most relevant to a shareholder, went from a loss of $0.61 to a gain of $1.56 and then $2.05.3
Cash from running the business was less tidy. Operating cash flow, meaning the cash generated by day-to-day operations, was $1.181 billion in fiscal 2023, negative $157 million in fiscal 2024, and $1.638 billion in fiscal 2025.4 A profitable year in which operations still consumed cash is a reminder that accounting profit and cash in the bank do not always move together. We have no filing detail in this dossier explaining the 2024 dip, so we do not speculate about the cause.
Shareholders' equity, the book value of the company after debts, rose from $6.696 billion to $7.972 billion between fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024.5 Research and development spending stayed in a narrow band: $349 million, $323 million and $355 million across the three years.6 In plain terms, revenue more than doubled while spending on building products barely moved.
The cash balance, and where sources differ
Robinhood's cash stood at $4.835 billion at the end of fiscal 2023, $4.332 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 and $4.261 billion at the end of fiscal 2025.7 It then rose to $5.012 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026 and $5.362 billion at the end of the second quarter.7 Over the same stretch the lowest quarterly reading we hold is $4.162 billion, in the second quarter of 2025.7 So the cash pile dipped through 2025 and has since recovered above its fiscal 2023 level of $4.835 billion.
One seam is worth showing. For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, two records disagree: one gives cash of $4.331 billion and another gives $4.3 billion. The difference is about $31 million, which looks like rounding rather than a real conflict. We use the more precise, filing-checked figure of $4.331 billion.7
What Robinhood and Cboe are actually offering
The new contracts let customers take a view on a company's own performance measures, such as results around earnings, rather than only on the share price. Cboe said it will charge no fees on the KPI binary options through the end of 2026, subject to regulatory review, and Robinhood will also offer them with no fees through year-end.8 At the same summit, Robinhood announced a long list of products, including Robinhood Social, Robinhood Agent, take-profit and stop-loss orders, perpetuals, 24/7 trading, extended options hours, earnings predictions, intraday buying power, Legend editions and 10X crypto leverage.9
Steve Quirk framed the contracts as a benefit to individuals: "Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs."1
That is a seller's description, and readers should weigh it as one. Zero fees through 2026 is a promotional period, not a permanent price. Note also that an extra tool is not the same as an extra edge. A precise bet is still a bet, and a contract that pays nothing if the outcome misses can lose the whole amount placed. The dossier gives us no data on how retail customers have fared with similar products, so we cannot say how this will go.
The other half: proving an AI agent is who it says it is
The second shift is happening among startups. On September 22, 2026, Baselayer raised a $35 million Series A led by M13, with Picus Capital, Torch Capital, Afore Capital and individual investor Matt Thompson of Socure taking part. The aim is to extend its identity technology to AI agents.10 The same day it launched an Agentic Identity Suite, extending its identity network from businesses to the AI agents that transact on their behalf.11 Baselayer is described as a startup that helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk.12
Jonathan Awad, quoted by Crunchbase News, put the problem this way: "Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?"12 He also argues that unless agents can show they act for legitimate people or businesses, "agents will just get blocked everywhere."12 That is a company's founder describing the need for his own product, and should be read as such.
Awad also described how slowly this market moves. Relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish, and large merchant partnerships can take up to 24 months.12 His own summary of the company's progress is: "We've essentially streamlined 10 years' worth of selling into two years."12 That is a claim about sales speed that we cannot independently check.
An investor's view of the wider software world comes from Sean Jacobsohn, a Norwest partner interviewed by Crunchbase News. On finance, he cautions: "You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math. There are certain workflows it can handle where it doesn't produce precise numbers. But when you need precision, accuracy and calculations, you can't rely on AI for that."13 He sees room to disrupt established finance software: "I think there's a potential opportunity to disrupt NetSuite and Sage," with disruption "downmarket" first.13 His test for founders is practical: "Before I invest, I'll go on a lot of sales calls I set up with the CEO to see how good they are at selling."13
Consolidation and a note of caution
Deals are running alongside the funding. Our topic analysis lists Circle's purchase of Tazapay, Grab's of Atome, Socure's of Fravity and Adobe's of Rilo.14 The dossier carries no prices or terms for these, so we do not assess them.
The caution comes from prediction markets. On September 20, Benoît Dubosson posted on X about a pattern of roughly $5,500 trades on Kalshi's ether perpetuals, and CNBC found that nearly half of that day's dollar volume came from trades between $5,495 and $5,505.15 Our dossier does not say what caused this pattern, and we do not offer a theory. It does show why oversight matters: the CFTC regulates Kalshi,16 and the SEC regulates Robinhood.16 Kalshi's investors include Sequoia Capital, and OracleX competes with it.16
How much to trust the sources
The Cboe and Robinhood announcement comes from a press release distributed by NewsEOD, whose measured reliability is 56% of 5,217 checked claims holding up.1 The three Crunchbase News pieces we draw on are rated 51% of 39 checked claims.12,13 Neither rating is high, and it is the main reason we rely on SEC-checked figures for numbers and attribute every opinion to the person who gave it. Quotes above are exactly as printed in those sources, and we have not verified the speakers' claims about their own products.
We cannot tell you whether you already own Robinhood. The dossier contains no index weightings, so we will not invent one. Check your fund's holdings list directly.
What to watch
- Whether regulators approve the KPI contracts in October, as the announcement makes launch conditional on approval.1
- What happens when the zero-fee period ends after 2026, and whether regulatory review changes it.8
- Robinhood's next quarterly cash and profit figures against the $5.362 billion cash level at the second quarter of 2026.7
- Whether agent-identity firms such as Baselayer sign the financial-institution relationships that, by Awad's account, take 12 to 24 months to build.12
- Any follow-up on the Kalshi trading pattern flagged on September 20.15
