SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (ViaNews) – At this point, the general sentiment was that the 2020 Dominican election would mostly be a fight between the two Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) candidates: Danilo Medina and Leonel Fernandez. According to recent polls, this might be about to change. A third contender, Luis Abinader, of the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), seems now to appear as a stronger option in the last polling intentions.

The no-alternative premise

In an article by Niza Campos in the Dominican newspaper Diario Libre, she writes that there seems to be “a very small possibility of an alternative force arising to attract the attention of the electorate” and that we’re at a point where “opposition is lacking a unified leadership.”

The political analyst, Cesar Perez, commented this issue saying that “as far as the nominations for the presidency, so far and facing the 2020 elections, we can´t glimpse the appearance of an alternative person or political force favorable to the collectivities.” Perez also mentions that “in spite of the degradation of the party system, many organizations have maintained the ability to inspire the people´s participation and involvement in the elections.”

For the political strategist, Carlos Nazario the general dissatisfaction with the party system is less than the parties´ capacity to gather people participation. “The democratic game includes agreements on different levels and stages. He adds emphatically “In the Dominican Republic all this does not seem to have been damaged enough to provide surprises in any other direction.”

This recent poll changes everything

Dominican Newspaper, El Nacional, brings up a last-minute national poll by the Centro Económico del Cibao with interesting results. Dr. Santiago Hazim, President of Ola Sector Externo, communicated that the poll was “funded by several businessmen who back that group.” The pool was based in the Santiago province, the rich and plush agricultural region of the Republic, home to one of the most prominent cultural, political, industrial, and financial center in the Dominican Republic. The results show that “the aspiring candidate for the PRM, Luis Abinader, is strengthening his position as a change alternative for the May 2020 elections.”

According to the same report, in a setting in which the only presidential candidates were Abinader (PRM) and Leonel Fernandez (PLD), Adinader would a lead with 47,7% against 37.7% for Leonel Fernandez. That’s a 10 points advantage in favor of the opposition candidate versus the governing party. El Nacional article mentions the fact that Abinader and Fernandez lead all of the political preference polls carried out in 2018 with the next elections in view. Another relevant item from the poll is the desire to change the political system. 67.4% were in favor, while 30.5% rather leave things as they are.

Gauging Dominicans fears and election sentiments

El Nacional goes beyond the elections, asking more personal questions. When asked “what is the main problem that affects your family” the responses were: “29.9% crime and delinquency, 23.9% high cost of living and unemployment”, and the rest a mixture of several items.
When asked about whether the PLD governments have been the most corrupt in Dominican History the responses were that “36.9% “completely agree”, and 21.3 “somewhat agree”:

Latest poll results

Dominican newspaper, Listin Diario, reports that a new poll carried out by CPI Latinoamericana international firm has revealed that the president of the PLD, Leonel Fernandez, has obtained a result of 44.1% and 20.2% would vote for Luis Abinader, of the PRM. The poll had the participation of a total of 1,206 Dominican voters.

The same poll had the Dominican Vice-President, Margarita Cedeño, in third place with 10.5%, and in fourth place was the Dominican former president, Hipólito Mejía, with 8.9% of the electoral preference.