Economy

Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu projects AI will deliver only a modest productivity boost globally, directly contradicting how equity markets from New York to Tokyo are pricing the technology. His forecast lands against rising energy costs, sticky inflation at 3.8% CPI, and AI stocks posting outsized gains on exchanges worldwide. If Acemoglu is right, current AI valuations carry a credibility gap in every major market.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has accelerated U.S. Social Security insolvency by three years to 2032 while cutting $1.1 trillion from Medicaid and Affordable Care Act programs. The fiscal crisis arrives as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026, raising global concerns about monetary policy independence in the world's largest economy.

Global equities rallied Thursday with tech and AI stocks leading gains after the Federal Reserve said tariffs have yet to spread beyond goods prices. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly cited labor market softening and moderating wage growth as reason to avoid prolonged high rates. The divergence highlights tension between strong markets and weakening employment fundamentals.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could add $5.5 trillion to U.S. national debt by 2034 and push Social Security insolvency forward to 2032, three years earlier than projected. The fiscal expansion comes as major economies globally face rising debt burdens, with U.S. commercial banks holding $4.4 trillion in government securities vulnerable to yield spikes.

The EUR/USD pair extended its losses in the second consecutive trading session, trading near 1.1510 during Asian hours on Monday. Despite a cautious tone from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Euro Zone's economic recovery remains under pressure.

The GBP/USD pair has struggled to capitalize on recent gains, with the pound sliding below 1.3100 amid a firmer US Dollar and growing concerns over UK budget stability.

President Trump is set to reveal details of his new health care plan aimed at curbing ACA premium costs, with key figures expected to unveil the 'Healthcare Price Cuts Act' at an early date. The proposal seeks to address the rising expenses of the Affordable Care Act, particularly affecting nearly 22 million Americans whose subsidies may expire soon. The announcement comes amid growing public support for extending tax credits and the potential for a separate bill enshrining the 'Most Favored Nation' drug pricing policy.

While middle-class incomes have increased, the cost of living and housing have skyrocketed, making it harder to maintain the same lifestyle as decades ago.

Singapore's stock market continued its downward trajectory on Friday, with the Straits Times Index falling nearly 1% following a series of sector-specific declines. The market's resilience is being tested as global markets remain uncertain amid mixed economic signals.

Understanding the implications of claiming Social Security at 62 is crucial for retirement planning. Early claims can lead to significant penalties, the earnings test may reduce benefits, and eligibility can be delayed based on birth month.