The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.11% this month — close to its highest in nearly two decades — after Fed Governor Christopher Waller put rate hikes back on the agenda, triggering a broad global bond selloff.1,2
Waller named the Iran War as a primary inflation risk, citing sustained oil price pressure as the factor that could force monetary tightening.1 He stopped short of committing to hikes, maintaining a wait-and-see stance until the conflict's true inflationary impact becomes clear.1
The FOMC's late-April vote — 8 members holding, 4 dissenting — signals a committee fracturing under pressure.2 Futures markets now price a rate hike as early as March 2026, a sharp reversal from expectations that had priced cuts through the year.
G7 finance ministers convened emergency discussions on the deepening selloff, confirming the repricing is not contained to U.S. markets.2 European and Japanese government bond yields moved in sympathy. Emerging market borrowers, who fund in dollars, face tighter refinancing conditions as elevated U.S. yields pull capital away from riskier assets.
Higher mortgage rates are also pressuring a tentative U.S. housing recovery. For existing bond holders globally, mark-to-market losses on long-duration paper are offsetting the improved coupon income that rising yields would otherwise deliver.3
The decisive variable remains oil. A sustained energy price shock from the Iran conflict hands the Fed's hawks a mandate for a full hiking cycle. A de-escalation could make the current yield surge an overshoot — creating a sharp reversal opportunity in Treasuries for global investors positioned accordingly.
Until that clarity arrives, bond markets worldwide are repricing duration risk in real time. The Fed is letting them.
