Central banks across developed economies are pivoting to potential rate hikes through 2026 as the Iran conflict drives energy prices higher and reignites inflation concerns.1 The shift marks a sharp reversal from dovish expectations that dominated markets just months ago.
ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch stated that "an ECB rate hike in April is not out of the question" if evidence emerges that the Iran war will persist and drive inflation higher.2 Fellow policymaker Madis Muller echoed concerns, noting the ECB cannot rule out rate changes as early as April if energy prices remain elevated.3
Market expectations have undergone a dramatic transformation across Atlantic markets. December CME FedWatch polling showed traders anticipating two U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025.4 Today, only 0.2% of traders expect rates to fall to 3.25-3.5% by end of 2026. Markets instead price in a 52% probability of rate hikes.4
The policy pivot reflects central banks' concerns that geopolitical energy shocks could derail inflation progress across major economies. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin has signaled the Federal Reserve's readiness to maintain restrictive policy longer than previously anticipated.5
Central banks globally are accelerating gold purchases as reserve diversification intensifies amid geopolitical uncertainty.1 The trend underscores broader concerns about financial stability and currency risk in an environment of elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
For global investors, the implications are clear: the era of anticipated rate cuts has ended. Bond yields are climbing across developed markets as monetary policy expectations reprice. Equity valuations face pressure from higher discount rates. The energy-driven inflation shock is forcing central banks to prioritize price stability over growth support, a stance that could persist well into 2026 if the Iran conflict remains unresolved.
