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News articleSeeking Alpha· July 29, 2026

Tilray projects $68M-$75M adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027 as it targets margin expansion

View original at seekingalpha.com

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  • 4Q organic growth, excluding BrewDog, was down 17%.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray is not a one-trick pony and is not waiting on U.S. cannabis rescheduling/legalization, which is not projected in its numbers.

    60% confidence
  • International cannabis revenue was impacted by approximately $21.1 million of price compression, which largely flows through to gross profit and the bottom line.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray has plenty of cannabis supply and could be one of the lowest cost producers given its scale and size.

    60% confidence
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% to $61.1 million, impacted by approximately $2.3 million in unanticipated fuel surcharges.

    60% confidence
  • Over time, Tilray aims to be a 15% to 18% EBITDA margin business.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray reduced debt by approximately $60 million, ending the year with net debt of less than $1 million; since April it raised $87 million of gross proceeds via ATM at an average price of $6.77 per share.

    60% confidence
  • Beginning January 1, 2027, Tilray will brew, market and sell Carlsberg, Carlsberg Elephant 1664, and Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc across the U.S.

    60% confidence
  • The 4Q beverage decline excluding BrewDog was self-inflicted from skew rationalization and exiting unprofitable businesses; Shock Top and Carlsberg will be the two national brands, with the rest regional.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray would consider entering big U.S. states under a state-silo model where opportunities exist, but would need to weigh policy durability.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray ended fiscal 2026 with approximately $235 million in cash and marketable securities and near-breakeven net debt, plus nearly $700 million of operating assets.

    60% confidence
  • The integration and optimization of acquired beverage brands has taken longer than expected amid broader category headwinds.

    60% confidence
  • In the prior quarter, management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $62 million to $72 million.

    60% confidence
  • The Canada adult-use volume/pricing shift was 90% driven by mix, with a small positive pricing contribution offset by international shipment declines and deprioritization of wholesale.

    60% confidence
  • International cannabis growth is sustained by having supply, improved speed of permits, and demand growth, despite major European price compression this year.

    60% confidence
  • Net loss improved significantly to $105.2 million or $1.09 per share; adjusted net income improved 87% to $12.2 million or $0.11 per share.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray is a diversified global consumer products and pharmaceutical distribution company with leadership positions across cannabis, beverage, hospitality and wellness.

    60% confidence
  • Fiscal 2026 proves Tilray Brands is more than the company many people think it is.

    60% confidence
  • Net revenue increased 11% in fiscal 2026 to a record $915.5 million, and net cannabis revenue increased 8% to $268.3 million.

    60% confidence
  • Full vertical integration on the medical side ensures consistent grow, quality, and avoids buying in a spot market; Tilray has doctors and pharmacy staff.

    60% confidence
  • Fiscal 2026 delivered record revenue of over $915 million on an annualized pro forma basis and record adjusted EBITDA of $61.1 million ($63.4 million excluding fuel surcharges).

    60% confidence
  • Tilray is providing fiscal 2027 guidance of adjusted EBITDA between $68 and $75 million, a double-digit increase from fiscal 2026.

    60% confidence
  • Nobody has figured out U.S. cannabis rescheduling yet, and Tilray will be disciplined about M&A rather than jumping in.

    60% confidence
  • EBITDA seasonality has quarters 1, 2 and 3 being roughly half the year combined, with quarter 4 being the other half.

    60% confidence
  • Veterans Affairs reimbursement changes are calculated to have a $4 million a year impact on revenue in fiscal 2027.

    60% confidence
  • CC Pharma's margin improvement reflects portfolio management, and Tilray is working toward compounding and a direct-to-consumer model in Germany.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray entered fiscal 2027 with priorities to expand margins, improve efficiency, accelerate innovation, and convert scale into stronger earnings power.

    60% confidence
  • Fourth quarter total net revenue increased 25% to $281.7 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 15% to a record $31.9 million.

    60% confidence
  • Tilray acquired an over $200 million annual revenue business for approximately $54 million and invested nearly $50 million of additional working capital.

    60% confidence

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