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News articleSeeking Alpha· November 7, 2025

Century Aluminum projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $170M-$180M while advancing Mt. Holly expansion

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Century Aluminum projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $170M-$180M while advancing Mt…
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  • Net sales for Q3 2025 were $632 million, a $4 million increase primarily due to higher realized Midwest premium, partially offset by lower shipments

    80% confidence
  • Jamalco weathered Hurricane Melissa catastrophic storm, protecting the refinery from any significant damage and most importantly, without suffering a single injury

    80% confidence
  • Mt. Holly restart total project spend should be somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million, with the additional volume generating about $25 million in additional EBITDA per quarter

    80% confidence
  • Production has restarted at Jamalco refinery and full production is expected to resume within weeks with no material financial impact from the storm

    80% confidence
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million for Q3 2025, mainly driven by the increased Midwest premium price

    80% confidence
  • There is a clear stated preference for buybacks as the most likely form of capital return once targets are reached

    80% confidence
  • Q4 anticipated increases in both LME and Midwest premiums will contribute approximately $65 million incremental EBITDA over Q3 levels

    80% confidence
  • Q3 2025 reported net income was $15 million or $0.15 per share, with adjusted net income of $58 million or $0.56 per share excluding exceptional items

    80% confidence
  • Insurance policy limits are high enough to cover both the property and business interruption costs of the Grundartangi outage up to and including the 11-12 month timeline

    80% confidence
  • Management maintains net debt target of $300 million, anticipating reaching this goal early in 2026

    80% confidence
  • The Supreme Court case does not affect Section 232 tariffs

    80% confidence
  • Mt. Holly restart is expected to begin in Q2 2026 and be completed by the end of June, with production ramping up throughout the second quarter

    80% confidence
  • At current realized prices, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $170 million to $180 million

    80% confidence
  • Timeline for Grundartangi restart is dependent on how quickly replacement transformers can be manufactured, shipped and installed, with current estimates at 11 to 12 months

    80% confidence
  • We now expect that we will see an approximately $0.05 year-over-year increase across our 2026 billet sales, which should generate an additional $30 million of 2026 EBITDA

    80% confidence
  • Century Aluminum is exploring repairs to reduce Grundartangi downtime and expects insurance coverage for these losses

    80% confidence
  • Outstanding global market conditions exist with rising aluminum prices and persistently challenged supply side dynamics

    80% confidence
  • The company is not for sale. We are very excited about our prospects

    80% confidence

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The observation date (2025-12-27) precedes Q1 2026, making it logically impossible to have actual Q1 2026 cash data at that point. Q1 2026 would not end until March 31, 2026. Additionally, the magnitude of the difference ($45.3B vs $132.42) is implausibly large even as a normal quarterly change for Apple. While different fiscal periods can show different values, the timing relationship here suggests a data integrity issue rather than legitimate period-over-period variation.
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