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Source document· January 26, 2026

UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

View original at nasdaq.com
UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Image source: The Motley Fool. DATE Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET CALL PARTICIPANTS Chief Executive Officer — Carol TomeChief Financial Officer — Brian DykesPresident, U.S…
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  • China-to-rest-of-world volume expected up 40% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence

  • U.S. ADV expected down approximately 9% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence

  • The only certainty is that UPS doesn't know which scenario will play out for full-year outlook

    80% confidence

  • Supply Chain Solutions revenue expected down approximately $500M in Q2 2025 due to Coyote divestiture

    80% confidence

  • Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand in February-March 2025

    80% confidence

  • 95% of small package customers expect to maintain current shipping models despite tariffs

    80% confidence

  • UPS has built in chaos costs to manage volume and maintain service during Q2 facility closures, impacting margin improvement

    80% confidence

  • International revenue expected down approximately 2% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence

  • U.S. Domestic operating margin expected up approximately 30 bps to approximately 9.3% in Q2 2025

    80% confidence

  • Many UPS SMB customers are 100% single-sourced from China, causing uncertainty due to 145% tariff announcement

    80% confidence

  • UPS ultimate target is 400 facilities partially or fully automated with 200 facilities closed

    80% confidence

  • The world hasn't faced such enormous potential impacts to trade in more than 100 years

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
Q4 2026 Clinical Catalyst Season: Big-Pharma Data Flow, Regulatory Milestones, and a Thin AI-Drug Fringe
October 2026 conferences (EASD, IGCS, NACFC, HFSA) are producing a dense run of late-stage readouts from Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Roche, Bayer, Vertex and Galderma. Regulatory milestones are scheduled behind them: the ivonescimab BLA PDUFA date on 2026-11-14, FDA acceptance of Roche's vamikibart BLA, and Scholar Rock's EMA resubmission. The AI-and-finance angle is peripheral. It consists of the AI-designed drug Rentosertib and QAIAx, a speculative microcap whose trial claims (the QIII pilot, anticipated 2027-01-01, and a patent update) are forecasts and filings rather than data, so they warrant skepticism.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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UPS (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript — Source | Via News | Via News