Dollar Erases Early Gains as US Consumer Sentiment Sinks
View original at nasdaq.comDollar Erases Early Gains as US Consumer Sentiment Sinks The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday gave up an early advance and finished little changed…
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Swaps markets are pricing the probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the FOMC June 16-17 meeting at 0%.
60% confidenceMarkets are pricing a 76% probability of a 25 bp BOJ rate hike at the June 16 policy meeting.
60% confidenceThe closer the yen falls to 160 per dollar, the greater the likelihood of Japanese government forex intervention, as has occurred several times recently when the yen fell below that level.
60% confidenceLong holdings in silver ETFs fell to a 9.25-month low on May 5, 2026 after rising to a 3.5-year high on December 23, 2025.
60% confidencePBOC gold reserves rose by 260,000 ounces to 74.64 million troy ounces in April 2026, the largest monthly increase in a year and the eighteenth consecutive month of PBOC gold reserve growth.
60% confidenceLong holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 5.25-month low on March 31, 2026 after reaching a 3.5-year high on February 27, 2026. Recent fund liquidation is bearish for gold prices.
60% confidenceSwaps markets are pricing an 88% probability of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at the June 11 policy meeting.
60% confidenceThe ECB will probably need to hike interest rates at its June meeting to send a signal of commitment to the medium-term 2% inflation target.
60% confidenceThe Federal Reserve's next interest rate move is just as likely to be an increase as a decrease; Waller supports a rate hike if inflation does not soon slow and is not headed in the right direction.
60% confidenceRising crude oil prices are negative for the Eurozone economy and the euro because Europe imports most of its energy.
60% confidenceJapan's supplementary budget will be approximately 3 trillion yen ($18.9 billion); the likely cancellation of some government bond sales from last year's budget would limit the need for fresh government debt issuance.
60% confidence