The First Federal Reserve Inflation Forecast for March Is In -- and It's Not Pretty
View original at nasdaq.comThe First Federal Reserve Inflation Forecast for March Is In -- and It's Not Pretty Key Points Oil price shock events are historically bad news for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite…
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We've shifted from an expectation of one or more rate cuts in 2026 to the very real possibility of rate hikes
60% confidenceStock Advisor's total average return is 898% compared to 183% for the S&P 500
60% confidenceThere is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%)
60% confidenceCPI is expected to surge to 3.02% in March 2026, up from 2.4% in February
60% confidenceNetflix recommendation on December 17, 2004 would have turned $1,000 into $495,179
60% confidenceOil price shock events are historically bad news for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite
60% confidenceThe Iran war represents the largest disruption to the global energy supply chain in history
60% confidenceApproximately 20% of the world's liquid petroleum needs travel through the Strait of Hormuz in a given day
60% confidenceApproximately 20% of the world's liquid petroleum needs travel through the Strait of Hormuz in a given day
60% confidenceSustaining the near-parabolic moves observed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite will prove difficult, if not impossible, given high valuations and lack of rate cuts
60% confidenceA rapid increase in inflation has the potential to throw a monkey wrench into the Federal Reserve's current rate-easing cycle
60% confidenceThe Iran war represents the largest disruption to the global energy supply chain in history
60% confidenceThe Iran war represents the largest disruption to the global energy supply chain in history
60% confidenceGas prices in the US have moved up to $3.88/gallon, their highest level since October 2022. The 33% spike over the last month ($2.92/gallon to $3.88/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years.
60% confidenceGas prices have moved up to $3.88/gallon, their highest level since October 2022. The 33% spike over the last month ($2.92/gallon to $3.88/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years.
60% confidencePersonal Consumption Expenditures expected to jump from 2.67% in February to 3.14% in March
60% confidenceNvidia recommendation on April 15, 2005 would have turned $1,000 into $1,058,743
60% confidenceStock Advisor's total average return is 898%, compared to 183% for the S&P 500
60% confidenceThe Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%).
60% confidencePersonal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are expected to jump from an estimated 2.67% in February to 3.14% in March
60% confidenceSustaining the near-parabolic moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite will prove difficult, if not impossible without Federal Reserve rate cuts
60% confidenceOil price shock events are historically bad news for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite
60% confidenceStock Advisor's total average return is 898% compared to 183% for the S&P 500
60% confidenceThe probability of the central bank cutting rates at the April FOMC meeting is effectively 0% now, while the probability of a rate hike is 8.3%
60% confidenceGas prices in the US have moved up to $3.88/gallon, their highest level since October 2022. The 33% spike over the last month ($2.92/gallon to $3.88/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years.
60% confidenceCPI is expected to surge to 3.02% in March 2026
60% confidencePersonal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are expected to jump from an estimated 2.67% in February to 3.14% in March
60% confidenceOil price shock events are historically bad news for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite
60% confidenceSustaining the near-parabolic moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite will prove difficult, if not impossible, if rate cuts are off the table
60% confidenceThe Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%).
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · rate hike probability | 8.3 percent |
| Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · rate cut probability | 0 percent |