Interest Rates Are Forecast to Do Something They Haven't Done Since 2023, and It Could Trigger a Major Move in the Stock Market
View original at nasdaq.comInterest Rates Are Forecast to Do Something They Haven't Done Since 2023, and It Could Trigger a Major Move in the Stock Market Key Points The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six times since September 2024, after defeating the inflation crisis of 2022…
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The overall increase in interest rates this time will probably be much smaller than in 2022-2023 because rates were coming off historic lows then.
60% confidenceWhen interest rates rise, debt repayments eat up a larger share of household budgets, reducing consumer spending and raising business credit costs, which hurts corporate earnings and stock prices.
60% confidenceHigher oil prices raise the cost of any product requiring transportation by boat, plane, or truck, impacting consumers at gas pumps, grocery stores, and retailers.
60% confidenceThere is clear evidence that any significant increase in interest rates will likely disrupt the current bull run in the stock market.
60% confidenceOil prices are likely to remain elevated well into the second half of 2026 due to Middle East production cuts, which could stoke even more inflation.
60% confidenceIf the CPI continues to climb, Wall Street could start pricing in a rate hike before the end of 2026.
60% confidenceThere is a 57% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in January 2027, with odds increasing thereafter.
60% confidenceMany of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East have slashed production because of Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions, and it could take several months to bring it back online even if the war ended immediately.
60% confidenceStock Advisor has achieved a total average return of 993%, outperforming the S&P 500's 208% return.
60% confidenceThe Federal Reserve targets a 2% annualized Consumer Price Index inflation rate.
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Nvidia at the time of the April 15, 2005 Stock Advisor recommendation would be worth $1,345,714.
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Netflix at the time of the December 17, 2004 Stock Advisor recommendation would be worth $481,589.
60% confidenceThe Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates again, which could trigger a sharp decline in the stock market.
60% confidence