Prediction: The Trump Bull Market Will Come to an Abrupt End Because of 2 Decisions Made by the President
View original at nasdaq.comPrediction: The Trump Bull Market Will Come to an Abrupt End Because of 2 Decisions Made by the President Key Points The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all soared with Donald Trump in the White House…
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Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz represents the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, placing 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids per day into limbo and adversely affecting 20% of world crude oil demand
60% confidenceRapidly rising inflation from the Iran war, paired with a hawkish Fed Chair and a historically pricey stock market, is a recipe for disaster for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite
60% confidenceAverage U.S. gas prices per gallon on May 6 per AAA: Regular $4.54 (up $1.56 since Iran war began Feb 28), Premium $5.39 (up $1.85), Diesel $5.67 (up $1.81)
60% confidenceThe Trump bull market will come to an abrupt end because of two presidential decisions: the military campaign against Iran and the appointment of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
60% confidenceAnnualized stock market returns under Trump are notably higher than under most other presidents
60% confidenceThe S&P 500 or Dow Jones has advanced in 26 of the last 33 presidential terms dating back to 1896
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Nvidia at the time of the April 15, 2005 Stock Advisor recommendation would now be worth $1,381,332
60% confidenceGas prices have soared at the fastest pace in over 30 years due to the Iran war
60% confidenceKevin Warsh's influence as Fed Chair, combined with three FOMC members opposing an easing bias in April 2026, points to a growing likelihood of a shift toward neutral or hiking monetary policy bias
60% confidenceCleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool projects U.S. TTM inflation of 3.89% in May 2026
60% confidenceThe Iran war is on track to increase U.S. TTM inflation by nearly 150 basis points between February and May 2026
60% confidenceKevin Warsh's FOMC voting record shows he consistently favored price stability and higher interest rates even as the unemployment rate soared during the financial crisis, earning him the label of 'hawk'
60% confidenceA $1,000 investment in Netflix at the time of the December 17, 2004 Stock Advisor recommendation would now be worth $469,293
60% confidenceGas accounts for 3.1% of the average American household budget but can be a considerably larger share of monthly expenditures for low-income households
60% confidenceThe effect of higher energy prices on businesses often lags a few months, meaning Iran war-driven transportation and production cost increases will push inflation further when they appear in economic data
60% confidenceKevin Warsh is not easy on inflation; Trump got the wrong person for Fed Chair if he wanted someone accommodative
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| S&P 500 Index Fund · total return stock advisor benchmark comparison | 207 percent |
| S&P 500 Index Fund · presidential term advance rate | 26 of_33_terms |