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Source document· November 28, 2025

Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

View original at nasdaq.com
Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Image source: The Motley Fool. Date Nov. 4, 2025 at 12:16 p.m. ET Call participants President — Harley FinkelsteinChief Financial Officer — Jeff HoffmeisterDirector, Investor Relations — Carrie Gillard Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst?…
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  • Our merchants have consistently delivered over 20% GMV growth for 9 consecutive quarters

    80% confidence

  • 2025 merchant cohort outpacing previous years' cohorts at same age

    80% confidence

  • Every 26 seconds, a new entrepreneur makes their first sale on Shopify

    80% confidence

  • Full year 2025 FCF margin expected similar to 2024

    80% confidence

  • Q4 2025 gross profit growth expected in low to mid 20% range

    80% confidence

  • Q4 2025 revenue growth expected in mid to high 20% range

    80% confidence

  • Merchants with annual GMV over $25M grew faster in Q3 than smaller merchants

    80% confidence

  • AI is not just a feature at Shopify. It is central to our engine that powers everything we build

    80% confidence

  • Q4 2025 operating expenses expected to be 30-31% of revenue

    80% confidence

  • Merchants raised prices since April tariffs, with pricing increases slightly lower than Q2 trends

    80% confidence

  • Sometimes that means me spending the weekend on calls... Tobi jumping in to explain a new feature... 8,100 people at Shopify who're relentlessly merchant-obsessed

    80% confidence

  • 64% of shoppers likely to use AI for BFCM purchases according to consumer survey

    80% confidence

  • Q4 2025 free cash flow margin expected slightly above Q3 levels

    80% confidence

  • Transaction and loan losses are elevated due to Payments testing and higher capital loss rate but are improving

    80% confidence
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What we're seeing
Frontier AI Slowdown Call Splits Industry, Rattles Capex-Sensitive Markets
Anthropic's Dario Amodei publicly called for a coordinated global slowdown in frontier AI development, a stance Microsoft echoed with a 'humanist' AI code of conduct, but Nvidia and Meta's CEOs rejected any coordinated pause days later, exposing a widening rift between safety-focused and growth-focused AI leaders. The dispute landed amid growing financial scrutiny of AI infrastructure spending — a hyperscaler capex analysis, FTC warnings against antitrust waivers for AI firms, and an 8.6% single-day stock drop in GE Vernova tied directly to the slowdown remarks — signaling investors are newly nervous about whether the AI capex boom (including Alphabet's projected $701B revenue narrative) can be justified if the pace of development itself becomes contested.
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Satellite-Terrestrial Network Integration Acceleration
Increased investment and launches in hybrid satellite-cellular networks across telecom industry; competitive responses from other carriers; regulatory activity around satellite spectrum; expansion of emergency/rural connectivity use cases
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ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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Shopify (SHOP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript — Source | Via News | Via News