AGNC (AGNC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• The outlook improved in Q2 2025 due to manageable MBS supply, growing MBS demand, stabilizing spreads at cheap levels, and cautious GSE reform approach

  80% confidence

• Expected MBS net supply for 2025 is approximately $200 billion at the low end of forecasts

  80% confidence

• GSE privatization must not widen mortgage spreads and should potentially tighten them

  80% confidence

• AGNC has no plans to grow for the sake of growing; growth is tied to accretive capital raising

  80% confidence

• Net spread and dollar roll income expected in range of mid- to high $0.30s to low to mid-$0.40s per share

  80% confidence

• The U.S. government will maintain implicit guarantees for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during privatization

  80% confidence

• Federal Reserve quantitative tightening expected to end relatively soon, possibly through year-end 2025

  80% confidence

• GSE reform will follow a do-no-harm approach with no upward pressure on mortgage rates

  80% confidence

• AGNC has the lowest operating costs in the industry at 111 basis points

  80% confidence

• Marginal investments are expected to generate high teens returns, somewhere between 18% to 20%

  80% confidence