Stock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop as chip stocks slide, US crude oil surges above $100
View original at finance.yahoo.comStock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop as chip stocks slide, US crude oil surges above $100 US stocks remained under pressure on Monday, while US crude futures settled above $100 for the first time since 2022…
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The longer this goes on, the higher that the oil price is going to go
60% confidenceFor nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of disruption, supported by a combination of pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, and policy barrels that provided a temporary buffer and kept prices contained. That phase is now ending.
60% confidencePolitical violence and unrest in Mexico's Puerto Vallarta and rainstorms and flooding in Hawaii have led to demand pullback including during peak West Coast Spring Break travel periods
60% confidenceThe tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock, though the critical point is to monitor inflation expectations
60% confidenceTrump's preference would be for the US to control the oil industry in Iran indefinitely
60% confidenceOil could head to $200 if the conflict continues into the summer
60% confidenceEnergy shocks have tended to come and go pretty quickly
60% confidenceCentral bank is taking a wait-and-see approach to policy
60% confidenceMemory chip pricing could remain strong through 2027
60% confidenceWe really do have a physical oil disruption where oil is being left in the ground, and every day this goes by, the disruption gets worse
60% confidenceCrypto stocks may be nearing a bottom
60% confidenceAbsent impacts from fuel, Puerto Vallarta, and Hawaii storms, Air Group's results would have exceeded the midpoint of original guidance
60% confidenceWe will eventually face the question of what to do here, but we're not facing them yet because we don't know what the economic effects will be
60% confidenceInflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term
60% confidenceThe combination of geopolitics and temporary crypto weak sentiment is offering big discounts on crypto stocks
60% confidenceWe believe, we will see a bottom in crypto stocks into weak Q1 earnings
60% confidenceBy the time the effects of tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you're weighing on the economy at a time when it's not appropriate
60% confidenceIf this goes on another 3-4 weeks, you'll see Brent at $130 or higher
60% confidenceWhat we see is a correction and certainly there'll be people losing money and things like that, but it doesn't seem to have the makings of a broader systemic event
60% confidenceOver time, the US is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation through US escorts or a multinational escort
60% confidenceThese businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead - prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, crypto derivatives and further beta on crypto recovery from the bottom
60% confidenceIf a deal is not reached shortly, the US would obliterate Iran's key desalination and energy infrastructure
60% confidenceFuel surge will cause drag on earnings per share of at least $0.70
60% confidenceStronger resilience in Robinhood and Figure given their revenues are largely unlinked to crypto
60% confidenceDoes not see a risk of contagion in private credit markets that could spread to the wider financial system
60% confidenceInterest rates are in a good place to respond to the oil shock stemming from the Iran war
60% confidenceRefining margins on fuel from Singapore have surged by roughly 400% since early February, from ~$0.45 to ~$2.25 per gallon
60% confidenceCoinbase EPS expected to grow by 23% in 2026, driven by stablecoin boom, new product launches, and expected crypto recovery
60% confidenceUS is in serious discussions to end the military operation in Iran
60% confidenceAI data center component demand continues to be strong with no signs of a slowdown on the horizon. Tight supply conditions are extending visibility through the year and are leading to price inflation in many cases.
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| SpaceX · ipo valuation target | 1750 USD |
| SpaceX · ipo raise target | 75 USD |
| Coinbase Global · stock decline from ath | -60 percent |