Within a single week in late October 2026, three things happened that point the same way. Robinhood reported that its event-contract revenue had risen more than sixfold to $173 million in a quarter.1 The US derivatives regulator, the CFTC, sued the state of Utah to defend the right of registered prediction-market exchanges to operate.2 The same regulator announced a roundtable on whether derivatives markets should trade around the clock.3 Markets that once closed for the night are being asked to stay open. Products that were once niche are being sold to ordinary investors. Nobody has yet settled who gets to say whether that is allowed.
This piece sets out what is verified, what is only announced, and where our sources are weaker than we would like.
The longer trading day is announced, not approved
Nasdaq says the industry's move to a 23-hour trading day is expected on Sunday, December 6, 2026. That date depends on the readiness of the SIP, the shared infrastructure that distributes market prices, and on SEC rule changes. Subject to SEC approval, Nasdaq will add a session running from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern time.4 Every condition in that sentence is still open, so the date is an expectation and not a commitment.
The CFTC is looking further than 23 hours. On October 28 it announced an industry roundtable, to be held on December 15, on whether derivatives markets could move to 24/7 trading.3 That is nine days after Nasdaq's expected start date. A venue's plan and the regulator's own study of the idea are running on top of each other.
Event contracts: the fastest-growing product, and the most contested
An event contract is a simple bet with a yes-or-no outcome. Cboe announced on September 30, 2026 that it plans to launch binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators (KPIs), expected in October 2026 and subject to regulatory approval. Products tied to 23 companies are planned, and Robinhood will be the first retail broker to offer them.5 In the release, Cboe's Steve Quirk said: "Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs."5
Robinhood's own results show the appetite. Reporting its third quarter on October 27, it said event-contract revenue rose more than sixfold to $173 million. Crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million. Total revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42 billion. Net income fell 14% to $476 million, and diluted earnings per share fell 16% to $0.51 against $0.55 expected.1 Event contracts are now bringing in more than crypto trading, which for years was the headline growth story at retail brokers. Profit still fell.
The regulatory fight is happening in parallel. On October 27 the CFTC sued Utah to block state efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets using state law. It said it had started legal proceedings against nine other states.2 The legal question is whether these markets answer to one federal regulator or to fifty state ones. A product can grow very quickly while that question is unresolved, and it can also be shut down quickly once the answer arrives.
Event contracts were also in the news after Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25. Prediction markets had expected Bolsonaro to win, and he lost. Brazilian firms then bought stablecoins to hedge currency risk: USDT volume on Mercado Bitcoin rose nearly 800% and Bitcoin volume rose 865%.6 Prediction markets have been seen as a way to gauge public opinion, and this result shows they can be wrong. One of the venues in this story has backing from Sequoia Capital, which invested in Kalshi.7
What Robinhood's audited numbers show
The following figures come from SEC filings and have been checked against them. Robinhood's annual revenue was $1.865 billion in fiscal 2023, $2.951 billion in fiscal 2024 and $4.473 billion in fiscal 2025.8 That is about 2.4 times the 2023 figure in two years. Net income went from a loss of $541 million in 2023 to a profit of $1.411 billion in 2024 and $1.883 billion in 2025.8 Earnings per share moved from -$0.61 to $1.56 to $2.05.8
Operating cash flow was less smooth. It was $1.181 billion in 2023, negative $157 million in 2024, and $1.638 billion in 2025.8 The 2024 dip is a reminder that profit and cash coming in are not the same thing. Research and development spending stayed fairly flat at $349 million, $323 million and $355 million over the same three years.8 Revenue grew far faster than technology spending. Stockholders' equity rose from $6.696 billion to $7.972 billion between fiscal 2023 and 2024.8
Cash was $4.835 billion at the end of fiscal 2023, $4.332 billion at the end of 2024 and $4.261 billion at the end of 2025. It stood at $5.012 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $5.362 billion in the second.8 Cash fell for two years and then recovered, which is useful context for a firm funding new products in a fast-moving field.
One seam to show. Our sources disagree slightly on Robinhood's cash at September 30, 2025. The SEC-filed figure is $4.331 billion, while another record rounds it to $4.3 billion.8 The difference, about $31 million, looks like rounding and not a real conflict. We use the SEC-filed figure.
Stablecoins and the European deadline
The rules are also tightening around digital money. Coinbase set a three-day deadline under the EU's MiCA rules. It said it would automatically convert non-compliant stablecoins, including USDT, PayPal's and a Trump-linked one, into USDC, and told users not to deposit them after October 30.9 On October 27 US Treasury Secretary Bessent said stablecoins and digital assets could reinforce the dollar's dominance. He said Treasury could coordinate with the SEC and CFTC on crypto rules, and he called for safeguards against crypto debanking.10 Europe is cutting back which stablecoins can be used. Washington is describing them as a strategic asset. That is a real policy difference.
The AI layer: money is flowing, caution is too
Alongside the trading changes, investors are putting money into software that lets AI agents act with money. Baselayer, a San Francisco company that helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk, raised $35 million in a Series A led by M13 to extend its identity technology to AI agents.11 Its Jonathan Awad described the problem this way: "Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?"11 He also warned that unless agents can show they act for legitimate people or businesses, "agents will just get blocked everywhere."11 Building trust is slow. Awad said relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish, and large merchant partnerships can take up to 24 months.11
Investors are cautious about using AI for the numbers themselves. Norwest's Sean Jacobsohn said: "You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math. There are certain workflows it can handle where it doesn't produce precise numbers. But when you need precision, accuracy and calculations, you can't rely on AI for that."12 The same interview has him describing how he judges founders: "Before I invest, I'll go on a lot of sales calls I set up with the CEO to see how good they are at selling."12
That caution matters for always-on markets. A market that never closes leaves less time for humans to check what automated systems are doing, and the people funding the AI tools are warning against relying on them for calculations.
How far to trust the sources
Via News measures how reliable its sources are, and the record here is mixed. Of 6,520 claims checked from the Cboe and Robinhood announcement's source, 53% held up.5 For the Crunchbase News pieces on Baselayer and Norwest, 49% of 41 checked claims held up.11, 12 These are measured rates for the source overall, not verdicts on any one sentence. We rely on the SEC-filed numbers for everything financial. The quotes are reported accurately from the interviews, but they are opinions from people with a stake in the outcome. The Cboe launch is a company announcement of a plan, and we have treated it as one.
What to watch
- December 6: whether the SEC approves Nasdaq's 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. session and whether the SIP is ready.4
- December 15: the CFTC roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading.3
- The Utah lawsuit and the nine other states: whether federal registration protects event-contract exchanges.2
- Robinhood's next report: whether event-contract revenue keeps growing, and whether profit follows revenue. Profit fell 14% in the latest quarter even as revenue rose 12%.1
- The KPI contracts: whether Cboe's launch gets regulatory approval.5
