The shift: betting-style contracts have become a real business line
The clearest evidence that markets are changing is in one company's quarterly results. Robinhood reported that revenue from event contracts, which let customers trade on whether something will happen, rose more than sixfold to $173 million in its third quarter. Over the same period, crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million.1 Event contracts now bring in more than crypto does at Robinhood, and they account for roughly 12% of the company's record $1.42 billion in quarterly revenue, up 12% on the year.1
The picture is not simply rosy. Net income fell 14% to $476 million, and diluted earnings per share came in at $0.51, down 16% and below the $0.55 analysts had expected.1 Record sales did not translate into record profit this quarter. (Note: the Q3 figures come from Via News's event record for 27 October 2026, not from an SEC filing in our verified dataset, so they are not yet in the fidelity-checked category used below.)
Robinhood's longer arc, from our verified data
The quarter sits on top of a dramatic multi-year turnaround. These figures are checked against SEC filings. Robinhood's revenue was $1.865 billion in fiscal 2023, $2.951 billion in 2024 and $4.473 billion in 2025.2 That is more than a doubling in two years. Net income moved from a loss of $541 million in 2023 to profits of $1.411 billion in 2024 and $1.883 billion in 2025.2 Earnings per share followed, from a loss of $0.61 to $1.56 and then $2.05.2
Two details are worth knowing. Operating cash flow was not a straight line: $1.181 billion in 2023, a negative $157 million in 2024, then $1.638 billion in 2025.2 A profitable year can still include a year when the business consumed cash from operations. And the company spends steadily on technology: research and development cost $349 million in 2023, $323 million in 2024 and $355 million in 2025.2
Cash on hand has moved around too. It stood at $4.835 billion at the end of 2023 and $4.332 billion at the end of 2024.2 It was $4.261 billion at the end of 2025, then $5.012 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $5.362 billion in the second quarter.2 Stockholders' equity, the company's book value, grew from $6.696 billion to $7.972 billion between 2023 and 2024.2
A small seam in the data: two records of Robinhood's cash at 30 September 2025 differ slightly, with one at $4.331 billion and another at $4.3 billion, a gap of about $31 million. That is a rounding-level difference, but we flag it because the more precise figure is the one we treat as verified.2
The exchanges want in: KPI contracts
Cboe Global Markets announced on 30 September 2026, at Robinhood's HOOD Summit in Houston, that it plans to launch a new category of binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators (KPIs). Products tied to 23 companies were expected in October 2026, subject to regulatory approval, and Robinhood would be the first retail broker to offer them.3 Our dossier does not confirm whether the launch has happened, so treat it as planned.
Steve Quirk, speaking for the partners, framed the appeal this way: "Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs."3 In plain terms, instead of buying a share and hoping, a customer could trade on a narrower question, such as whether a company will hit a particular number. That precision cuts both ways, since a narrow bet can be lost entirely.
About the source: the press release was distributed by NewsEOD. Our measurement of that source found that 53% of 6,464 checked claims held up.3 That is better than a coin flip and well short of a source to accept without checking. The Robinhood and Cboe partnership is a company announcement, not an independent finding.
Regulators: a turf fight and a longer trading day
The rules are being contested in real time. On 27 October the CFTC, the US derivatives regulator, sued Utah to stop state efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets using state laws. It said it had started legal proceedings against nine other states.4 For Robinhood's fastest-growing product, the question of who regulates it, federal or state authorities, is therefore unsettled.
The hours of trading are also changing. Nasdaq says the industry's move to a 23-hour trading day is expected on Sunday, 6 December 2026. That depends on the readiness of the shared system that distributes price data (the SIP) and on SEC rule changes. Subject to SEC approval, Nasdaq would add a 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern session.5 Separately, the CFTC said it will hold an industry roundtable on 15 December on whether derivatives markets can move to 24/7 trading.6 Nasdaq's date is an expectation with conditions, not a done deal.
Crypto-related rules are moving as well. Coinbase gave users a three-day MiCA deadline (MiCA is the European Union's crypto rulebook). It said it would automatically convert non-compliant stablecoins, including USDT, to USDC, and told users not to deposit them after 30 October.7 In a speech on 27 October, Treasury Secretary Bessent said stablecoins and digital assets could reinforce dollar dominance. He added that Treasury could coordinate with the SEC and CFTC on crypto rules.8
The Brazilian presidential runoff on 25 October shows why some people want markets that never close. Prediction markets had expected Bolsonaro to win, and he lost. Brazilian firms bought stablecoins to hedge currency risk, and USDT volume on the exchange Mercado Bitcoin rose nearly 800%.9 The same episode also shows that prediction markets can be wrong.
The other half: who can trust a trading robot?
If markets run all hours, software agents are likely to do more of the trading and buying. One startup, Baselayer, has raised $35 million to extend its business-identity technology, which helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk, to AI agents. M13 led the Series A, with Picus Capital also participating.10
The pitch rests on a trust problem. Baselayer's Jonathan Awad said: "Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?"10 He also warned that without proof of acting for legitimate people or businesses, "agents will just get blocked everywhere."10 He said relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish, and large merchant partnerships up to 24 months.10 That is a reminder that building this plumbing is slow.
The investor side is cautious too. Norwest partner Sean Jacobsohn said of finance software: "You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math."11 He also said he tests founders' selling ability before investing, and described a large archive he keeps: "I have built a Failure Museum that includes more than 1,500 items from failed companies and products."11
Both pieces come from Crunchbase News, and our measurement found 49% of 41 checked claims from that source held up.10,11 The sample is small and the rate is below half, so treat these as the views of the people quoted, not as established fact. The Awad and Jacobsohn quotes are verbatim, and they are opinions.
What to watch
- 6 December: whether Nasdaq's 23-hour day starts, which depends on SEC approval and system readiness.5
- 15 December: the CFTC roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading.6
- The Utah case and the nine other states, which will show how much room federal and state regulators leave for event contracts.4
- Robinhood's next quarter: whether event-contract revenue holds near $173 million, and whether profit catches up with sales.1
- The Cboe KPI contracts: whether they launch, and with which of the 23 companies.3
For ordinary investors, the practical point is that these contracts are narrow, short-lived bets, not ownership of a business. Their growth shows demand, not that they are good for the people trading them.
Sources:
1 Via News event record — Robinhood Q3 earnings (October 27, 2026)
2 Via News verified data — Robinhood Markets, Inc. revenue, net income, EPS, cash, operating cash flow, R&D expense and stockholders' equity, SEC filings (FY 2023 to Q2 2026)
3 NewsEOD, "Cboe and Robinhood Announce Planned Launch of New KPI Contracts, Further Expanding Prediction Market Offerings" (2026-09-30)
4 Via News event record — CFTC sues Utah (October 27, 2026)
5 Via News event record — Nasdaq 23-hour trading day expected (December 06, 2026)
6 Via News event record — CFTC announces 24/7 derivatives trading roundtable (October 28, 2026)
7 Via News event record — Coinbase MiCA stablecoin deadline (October 30, 2026)
8 Via News event record — Bessent speech at Ripple Swell (October 27, 2026)
9 Via News event record — Brazil presidential runoff (October 25, 2026)
10 Crunchbase News, "Exclusive: Can You Trust That AI Agent? Baselayer Raises $35M To Help Companies Decide" (undated)
11 Crunchbase News, "The Sales Test This Norwest Partner Gives Founders Before He’ll Invest" (undated)
