The share price and the analysts moved in opposite directions
Palantir Technologies shares fell more than 7% on Friday, 16 October 2026, closing at $186.03 after a drop of $14.47. It was the fifth session in a row that the stock finished lower.1 The stock had set a 52-week high of $212.94 earlier the same week.1 The fall came during a broader technology selloff that weighed on the Nasdaq-100 index.1
That is the backdrop to a run of bullish analyst commentary. Optimism about the company's business and the market's mood on the day were pointing in different directions.
What the bulls are actually saying
Bernard Zambonin remains constructive on Palantir. He emphasizes customer expansion and net dollar retention as central to the bull case.1 Net dollar retention measures whether existing customers spend more over time. He also acknowledges that the elevated forward valuation makes continued execution essential.1 In plain terms, the shares are priced for the company to keep delivering.
Ryan Canady upgraded Palantir to Buy. He concluded that customer-built AI applications can remain complementary to Palantir's platforms rather than displace its core offering.1 That addresses a common worry among investors: that clients will build their own AI tools and stop needing Palantir's.
Two further analysts, Fiorillo and Zaccardi, are named in our research as having turned more positive. The source material we hold contains no verified statements from either, so we do not characterize their views.
A run of partnership announcements
Palantir's name also appeared in several announcements within a few days:
- On 13 October 2026, Ondas and Palantir announced Regna AI. It is a standalone private company meant to help governments, businesses and institutions develop and deploy AI models in sovereign environments. Palantir is expected to provide model-training infrastructure and engineering.2
- On 14 October 2026, Customers Bank announced a collaboration with Palantir to develop an AI-oriented banking operating model. The bank's own forward-looking statements highlight implementation risks, reliability concerns and contractual flexibility.3
- On 14 October 2026, Surf Air Mobility signed Flying Zebra as its fifth commercial OperatorOS customer. The software is powered by Palantir, and Surf Air receives a percentage of revenue from trips managed through the platform.4
The Customers Bank caveat is worth keeping in mind. The bank's own announcement flags risks alongside the promise. These are announced collaborations, and our records show no results or revenue figures from any of them yet.
The other half of the story: a sour defense tape
The same weeks brought a much less cheerful message from the defense sector. On 8 October 2026, J.P. Morgan's lead aerospace and defense analyst, Seth M. Seifman, described a challenging third-quarter earnings season. He pointed to slowing airline traffic growth, uncertainty over U.S. military spending and lingering supply-chain constraints weighing on investor sentiment.5
His view is nuanced. Most companies, he said, should deliver solid quarterly results and express confidence in underlying demand. But good earnings may not be enough to reverse the sector's stock-market weakness.5 Healthy business and weak share prices can coexist, as Palantir's own session showed.
J.P. Morgan downgraded Leidos. Seifman's reasoning was that the company's relatively low valuation is insufficient to justify an Overweight rating when other aerospace and defense stocks also offer substantial potential returns.5 The downgrade is about relative appeal. It is not a claim that Leidos is in trouble. In the same report he expected Howmet's 2026 earnings estimates to increase and its management to remain confident about growth in aerospace and industrial gas turbines.5
Our records also list BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. as a competitor of Leidos Holdings, Inc.6 We have no verified figures on how either company is performing against the other.
The election date
The uncertainty over defense spending has a date attached. Congressional midterm elections on 3 November 2026 could change control of Congress and constrain military spending growth. Some of the uncertainty may dissipate after that date.7
How much weight to put on the sources
Both the Palantir and Leidos articles come from NewsEOD. Our measured reliability for that source is 58%: of 927 claims we checked, 58% held up.1,5 That is a middling record. The analyst statements above are reported secondhand through those articles, so treat them as reported views, not independently confirmed facts.
The verified, SEC-sourced data we hold for this story covers Goldman Sachs and contains no Palantir or Leidos financials. We therefore cannot say, from checked numbers, whether Palantir's customer growth or retention is as strong as the bulls argue. We can only report that named analysts say so.
What to watch
- Palantir's share price after five straight down days. Zambonin ties the bull case to continued execution, and he acknowledges the valuation is high.1
- Whether the partnerships produce revenue. The announcements describe plans and collaborations, and the Customers Bank statement itself flags implementation risk.3
- Defense earnings after 3 November. Seifman's warning is that solid results may not lift the shares. The election outcome is the date to watch for the budget question.5,7
This article is analysis of reported information and is not investment advice.
