MaxLinear (MXL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• MaxLinear is gaining share in PON vs competition and regaining previously lost share in cable

  80% confidence

• Customer engagement for Rushmore is accelerating faster than expected

  80% confidence

• CPO is in early innings and the future will be more varietal than just pure CPOs

  80% confidence

• Infrastructure will become the largest revenue contributor in 2026

  80% confidence

• Connectivity expected to grow in 2026 driven by Wi-Fi 7 and 2.5GbE Ethernet

  80% confidence

• Keystone PAM4 DSP expected to generate $100M-$130M revenue in 2026 with 4M-6M transceiver unit volume

  80% confidence

• OpEx expected to grow 4%-5%, typically targeting half of revenue growth rate

  80% confidence

• Gross margin target is to exit the year starting with 6% vs current 5%

  80% confidence

• Lead times for optical products are 28 weeks

  80% confidence

• MaxLinear is among the top 3 deployers of PAM4 DSP globally

  80% confidence

• 80%+ of business is not exposed to supply chain tightness

  80% confidence

• Infrastructure will grow faster in 2026 than in 2025

  80% confidence

• Broadband revenue expected to be down year-over-year in 2026 due to seasonally soft H1 and DOCSIS 4.0 transition

  80% confidence

• The pluggable market as a whole is still growing very fast

  80% confidence

• Panther storage accelerator revenue expected to at least double in 2026 vs 2025, with potential to double again in 2027

  80% confidence

• LRO has some traction but will be a fraction of the market

  80% confidence

• MaxLinear strengthened its relative position in certain geographies for 800G and is #3 in the US

  80% confidence

• LPO is very niche and will be a very small fraction of the market, limited to controlled environments and less relevant for 1.6 terabits

  80% confidence

• MaxLinear does not compete on price; wins are based on performance and pricing is the last decision factor

  80% confidence

• Company expects to outgrow the industry in 2026

  80% confidence

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