Mobileye (MBLY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• Dual-chip program is one-off, not a trend

  80% confidence

• Dual-chip program with one OEM expected to deliver approximately 700,000 units in 2026 using two IQ4 chips per vehicle

  80% confidence

• Artificial Community Intelligence enables one billion hours of training overnight in simulation for self-play reinforcement learning of planning engine and driving policy

  80% confidence

• Most of the AI that humans are using every day is in the digital world. The two main applications of AI in the physical world are autonomous vehicles and robotics

  80% confidence

• Revenue per robotaxi vehicle is $45,000 drive content plus recurring revenue per mile

  80% confidence

• Dual-chip program second chip priced at discounted price versus first chip, resulting in higher gross profit per vehicle but lower ASP and gross margin per unit with approximately 80 cents year-over-year ASP impact combined with natural mix

  80% confidence

• Top 10 customer production expected down 2% in 2026, while Mobileye volume with them up 6% at midpoint

  80% confidence

• Menti Robotics is the only Western humanoid company actively engaging customers on POCs and pilots with pure AI without remote operation

  80% confidence

• 35.6 million IQ units shipped in full year 2025, above initial expectation of 32-34 million

  80% confidence

• No meaningful revenue expected from advanced products including robotaxi and Porsche/Audi in 2026

  80% confidence

• 2025 FX impact mitigated by hedging with effective payroll rate 5-6% more favorable than market average

  80% confidence

• Waymo's commercialization provided supporting proof points on consumer acceptance and demand for autonomous mobility services

  80% confidence

• Menti R&D impact represents approximately 4% of operating expense growth in 2026

  80% confidence

• Volkswagen robotaxi ecosystem targeting 100,000 robotaxi units by 2033, up from prior expectations

  80% confidence

• Menti Robotics production with manufacturing partner targeted for 2027 and full commercialization targeted for 2028

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 anticipated restocking to normalize safety stock at customer level

  80% confidence

• Secured first two major design wins for IQ6 Surround ADAS chip with two of top six global OEMs for standard fitment across highest-volume vehicle categories

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 IQ unit volume projected at 10 million, representing approximately 19% year-over-year growth

  80% confidence

• Q4 2025 included $7 million nonrecurring expense for workforce efficiency initiatives

  80% confidence

• 2026 hedging covers more than 50% of payroll at favorable rates but less favorable after 2025, with the risk obviously heavier as deterioration gets bigger

  80% confidence

• Moya fleet targeting removal of safety drivers in 2026

  80% confidence

• Volkswagen manufacturing capacity enables 10,000-75,000 units per year production flexibility for robotaxi

  80% confidence

• 2025 China OEM full-year volume growth driven by ADAS and SuperVision units with strong export trends aligned with China OEM export volume growth

  80% confidence

• Ongoing discussion with second design win customer about second architecture with potential to double pipeline

  80% confidence

• Gross margin expected to decline year-over-year in 2026 due to IQ5 cost savings phase-out beginning 2027, vehicle mix headwinds, and dual-chip program pricing

  80% confidence

• 100,000 robotaxis can also be a small number in hindsight given Volkswagen manufacturing capacity can produce 10,000 per year, 50,000 per year, or 75,000 per year

  80% confidence

• Full year 2025 revenue was $1.9 billion, up 15% year-over-year and exceeded high end of prior guidance with original guidance of 6% growth at midpoint

  80% confidence

• Robotaxi expansion to six cities including Los Angeles with Uber in 2027 with few hundred vehicles per city in initial phase

  80% confidence

• Completed acquisition of Menti Robotics humanoid robotics company with 2026 deployment of high tens of units for proof-of-concept

  80% confidence

• IQ6 Surround ADAS is the product that addresses a very clear pinpoint for customers

  80% confidence

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