Tiger Global Management and SoftBank Vision Fund cut their large-deal activity by over 95% between 2021 and 2025, shifting mega-round leadership back to traditional venture capital firms worldwide. Crunchbase data shows 1,440 companies raised rounds of $50 million or more in 2025, roughly half the 2021 cohort.
The pullback by these crossover investors has reshaped global dealmaking. Venture capital firms now dominate large financing rounds as private equity players, overindexed in private companies during 2021's boom, scale back across markets. Established VCs are deploying capital at elevated valuations in AI-focused deals, filling the void left by retreating mega-investors.
Tiger Global and SoftBank's withdrawal reverses their 2021 peak, when rapid deployment strategies pushed valuations to unprecedented levels across U.S., European, and Asian markets. Their near-total exit from mega-rounds reflects broader caution about extended exit timelines and uncertain returns for highly-valued private companies globally.
The halving of mega-round volume raises questions about returns. Extended holding periods and persistent IPO challenges from New York to London to Hong Kong complicate exit scenarios for investors backing companies at premium prices. Crunchbase asks: "Will this new cohort deliver outsized returns in coming years?"
Institutional allocators worldwide are adjusting strategies. Makena Capital, managing over $10 billion, exemplifies emerging hedge-oriented approaches among limited partners. The firm's Stripe exposure serves as a portfolio hedge against Visa, since Stripe could use crypto rails to disrupt Visa's payment network, according to Makena's Lara Banks.
The shift toward VC-led deals coincides with AI sector concentration across global markets. Venture firms with domain expertise and longer investment horizons position themselves as preferred partners for AI startups, displacing the rapid-fire strategies that characterized 2021's frothy market. Whether 2025's cohort generates returns matching their valuations will determine if venture capital's resurgence represents structural improvement or another cycle peak.