Makena Capital models an 18-year fund life with most capital returning in years 16 through 18, according to Lara Banks. The extended timeline marks a departure from the 10-year structures that have governed venture capital globally since the asset class emerged in the 1970s.
Banks uses Stripe exposure as a hedge against Visa, betting crypto rails could disrupt payment networks. The positioning reflects how US institutional investors are building optionality as infrastructure shifts accelerate—a dynamic playing out differently across markets. European funds face tighter regulatory frameworks around crypto positioning, while Asian investors navigate separate infrastructure transitions in digital payments.
Even well-positioned firms missed opportunities. Martin Casado at Andreessen Horowitz admitted the firm "talked ourselves out of" investing in neocloud providers despite early positioning. The miss shows how conventional wisdom can override market signals, even at Silicon Valley firms known for contrarian thinking.
The ecosystem shows clear bifurcation. Specialized funds including Outlast, Swen Capital, and Ideaspring maintain sector focus, while platform funds retreat from consumer investing. The pullback creates entry points for managers willing to deploy in categories that large generalists now avoid—a pattern emerging in venture markets from London to Singapore.
Thomas Lee sees potential for consumer financial platforms targeting Gen Z and Gen Alpha, with ventures like MrBeast's banking initiative potentially serving as crypto entry points. The thesis reflects how demographic shifts could reopen consumer categories, particularly in markets where younger cohorts drive digital adoption faster than in the US.
The 18-year model suggests limited partners worldwide accept that breakthrough returns require longer holding periods. This removes pressure for early exits but locks capital longer, forcing pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds to adjust liquidity planning. The trade-off matters more for institutional investors in markets with shorter investment horizons, including parts of Europe and Asia.
Selective deployment now defines the market globally. Firms choose between broad sector coverage with slower capital deployment or concentrated bets in areas where they hold conviction, even as timelines extend beyond historical norms across all major venture markets.