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Source document· March 6, 2026

Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concerns and a Weak US Job Market

View original at nasdaq.com
Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concerns and a Weak US Job Market The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -1.33%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.95%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.51%…
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  • The Iran war is unlikely to cause sustained inflation

    80% confidence

  • Real-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to estimate of impact of six-week full halt to tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz

    80% confidence

  • Government is exceptional at printing money and creating promises but can't print gold or create oil

    80% confidence

  • Baseline features still-uncertain inflation picture with continued upside risks, arguing for maintaining policy rates at current mildly restrictive levels

    80% confidence

  • S&P earnings growth expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth

    80% confidence

  • Vessels sailing through Strait of Hormuz could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones

    80% confidence

  • Year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027

    80% confidence

  • Q4 earnings expected to increase by +4.6% excluding Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks

    80% confidence

  • All Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks if the war drags on, driving crude oil prices to $150 a barrel

    80% confidence

  • The war in the Middle East could bring down the economies of the world

    80% confidence

  • Policy should be on hold for quite some time as inflation comes down and labor market stabilizes

    80% confidence

  • There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender

    80% confidence

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